Mikhail A. SEMENOV
ADDRESS Department of Computational and Systems Biology
Rothamsted Research
Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ



Climate change and impacts, Ideotype design, Downscaling and weather generators, Climatic variability and extremes, Crop modelling, Individual-based modelling, Evolutionary computation
DEGREES 1981 First Class Honours degree in mathematics, Moscow State University, RUSSIA
1985 PhD in mathematics, Computational Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, RUSSIA
EMPLOYMENT HISTORY 2000- Rothamsted Research, UK
1991 Long Ashton Research Station, University of Bristol, UK
1989 Hungarian Academy of Sciences, HUNGARY
1984 Computational Centre, Russian Academy of Sciences, RUSSIA
ACTIVITIES Editor-in-Chief of Climate Research

2012-17 Systems approaches to crop improvement, BBSRC
2012-17 FACCE JPI Knowledge Hub on Climate change risk assessment for European agriculture and food security (MACSUR), EU & BBSRC
2011-15 Genetics & physiology of wheat development: tools to breed for improved adaptation and yield potential (ADAPTAWHEAT), EU
2011-15 Atopic diseases in changing climate, land use and air quality (ATOPICA), EU
2010-13 Modelling resistance development using an IbM approach, Syngenta
2008-11 Assessing the impact of climate change on arable plant communities, BBSRC
2007-10 Improving water use efficiency and drought tolerance in UK winter wheats, DEFRA-LINK
2006-10 Identification of traits to reduce N requirement and improve grain protein of winter wheat, BBSRC-INRA
2006-08 Vulnerability of UK agriculture to extreme events, DEFRA
2001-04 Assessing predictive skill of models to optimise crop management and design, DEFRA
2001-02 A rational basis for design of wheat canopy ideotypes for UK environments, DEFRA
2000-04 Predicting biological control using slug-pathogenic nematode against pest, BBSRC
1998-02 Assessing drought risk for UK crops under climate change, MAFF
1998-00 Improving wheat model accuracy and suitability for regional assessment (IMPETUS), EU
1996-99 Climate change, climatic variability and agriculture in Europe (CLIVARA), EU
1995-98 R & D on application of predictive models for support in nitrate policy, MAFF
1993-95 Climate change and agriculture in Europe: Impact assessment and adaptation (CLAIRE), EU 
1991-92 Effect of climate change on agriculture in the Europe (EPOCH), EU
1987-90 Adaptive agro-ecosystems, Russian Sci Academy
1986-88 Ecological and demographic consequences of nuclear war, SCOPE-ENUWAR


Principal developer of the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator (website), a computationally inexpensive tool to produce local-scale climate scenarios based on global or regional climate models for impact assessments of climate change. LARS-WG has been used in more than 65 countries for research and in several Universities as an educational tool.

Principal co-developer of the Sirius wheat simulation model (website). Sirius is used in research by many scientists to understand crop responses to environmental variations, and in practice by farmers to optimize water and N management.


Semenov MA, Stratonovitch P (2015) Adapting wheat ideotypes for climate change: accounting for uncertainties in CMIP5 climate projections. Climate Research 10.3354/cr01297
Hamaoui-Laguel et al (2015) Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe. Nature Climate Change 5:766–771
Asseng et al (2015) Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production. Nature Climate Change 5:143–147
Pirttioja et al (2015) Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces. Climate Research 10.3354/cr01322
Martre et al (2015) Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one. Global Change Biology (10.1111/gcb.12768)
Stratonovitch P & Semenov MA (2015) Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change J. Exp Botany 66 (12): 3599-3609
Martre P, He J, Le Gouis J & Semenov MA (2015 ) In silico system analysis of physiological traits determining grain yield and protein concentration for wheat as influenced by climate and crop management. J. Exp Botany 66 (12): 3581-3598
Ewert et al (2015) Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change. Env Model & Software (10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003)
Trnka M, Rötter RP, Ruiz-Ramos M, Kersebaum KC, Olesen JE, Žalud Z & Semenov MA (2014) Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change. Nature Climate Change 4, 637–643
Stratonovitch P, Elias J, Denholm I, Slater R & Semenov MA (2014) An individual-based model of the evolution of pesticide resistance in heterogeneous environments: control of Meligethes aeneus population in oilseed rape crops. PLoS ONE 9(12): e115631.
Vanuytrecht E, Raes D, Willems P & Semenov MA (2014) Comparing climate change impacts on cereals based on CMIP3 and EU-ENSEMBLES climate scenarios. Agri Forest Meteorol 195–196: 12–23.
Semenov MA, Stratonovitch P, Alghabari F & MJ Gooding (2014) Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change, J. Cereal Science 59(3):245-256
Storkey J, Stratonovitch P & Semenov MA (2014) A process-based approach to predicting the effect of climate change on the impact of an invasive allergenic plant in Europe. PLoS ONE 9(2): e88156
Crout N, Craigon, Cox G, Jao Y, Tarsitano D, Wood A, Semenov MA (2014) An objective approach to model reduction: application to the SIRIUS wheat model. Agr Forest Meteorol 189–190:211-219
Semenov MA, Stratonovitch P (2013) Designing high-yielding wheat ideotypes for a changing climate. Food Energy Security, 2:185-196
Asseng S et al (2013) Quantifying uncertainties in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Climate Change
Semenov MA , Pilkington-Bennett S, and Calanca P (2013) Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the ECA observed dataset. Climate Research, 51:1-9
Calanca P & Semenov MA (2013) Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database Theor Appl Climatology, 133:445-455
Kauserud H, Heegaard E, Büntgen U, Halvorsen R, Egli S, Boddy L, Senn-Irlet B, Greilhuber I, Dämon W, Sparks T, Nordén J, Høiland K, Kirk P, Semenov MA, & Stenseth NC (2013), Warming-induced shift in European mushroom fruiting phenology. PNAS, 110(5):E333-E334
Höglind M, Thorsen SM, Semenov MA (2013) Quantifying uncertainty in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of climate predictions Agr Forest Meteor, 170:103-113
Semenov MA, Mitchell RAC, Whitmore A, Hawkesford MJ, Parry MAJ & Shewry PR (2012) Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions, Nature Climate Change 2 (6):380-382 (pdf)
He J, Le Gouisa J, Stratonovitchc P, Allarda V, Gajud O, Heumeze E, Orfordf S, Griffithsf S, Snape JW, Foulkes MJ, Semenov MA, Martre P. (2012) Simulation of environmental and genotypic variations of final leaf number and anthesis date for wheat. Europ J Agronomy, doi:10.1016/j.eja.2011.11.002
Iizumi T, Takayabu I, Dairaku K, Kusaka H, Nishimori M, Sakurai G, Ishizaki NN, Adachi SA & Semenov MA (2012) Future change of daily precipitation indices in Japan: A stochastic weather generator-based bootstrap approach to provide probabilistic climate information from dynamical and statistical downscaling models, Journal of Geophysical Research 177:D11114
Stratonovich P, Storkey J & Semenov MA (2012) A process-based approach to modelling impacts of climate change on the damage niche of an agricultural weed, Global Change Biology 18(6):2071-2080
Iizumi T, Semenov MA, Nishimori M, Ishigooka Y & Kuwagata T (2012) ELPIS-JP: A dataset of Local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan. Phil Tran Royal Society-A, 370:1121-1139 (pdf)
Semenov MA & Shewry PR (2011) Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe. Nature Scientific Reports 1:66 (web)
Semenov MA, Donatelli M, Stratonovitch P, Chatzidaki E & Baruth B (2010) ELPIS: a dataset of local-scale daily climate scenarios for Europe. Climate Research 44:3-15 (pdf)
Lazzarotto P, Calanca P, Semenov MA, & Fuhrer J (2010) Transient responses to increasing CO2 and climate change in an unfertilized grass-clover sward Clim Research 41: 221–232
Evans N, Butterworth MH, Baierla A, Semenov MA, West JS, Barnes A Moran D & B Fitt BDL (2010) The impact of climate change on disease constraints on production of oilseed rape. Food Security 2:143-156
Kauserud H, Heegaard E, Semenov MA, Boddy L, Halvorsen R, Chr. Stige L, Sparks TH, Gange AC & Chr. Stenseth N (2010) Climate change and spring-fruiting fungi Proc Royal Society B 277:1169-1177
Semenov MA & Stratonovitch P (2010) The use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for impact assessments of climate change. Clim Research 41:1-14 (pdf)
Semenov MA & Halford NG (2009) Identifying target traits and molecular mechanisms for wheat breeding under a changing climate J Exp Botany, 60(10):2791-2804
Butterworth MH, Semenov MA, Barnes A, Moran D, West JS & Fitt BDL (2009) North-south divide; contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England, J Royal Soc Interface, doi:10.1098/rsif.2009.0111
Semenov MA, Martre P & Jamieson PD (2009) Quantifying effects of simple wheat traits on yield in water-limited environments using modelling approach. Agr Forest Meteor, 149:1095-1104
Semenov MA (2009) Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales. J Royal Society Interface, 6:343-350(pdf)
Lawless C, Semenov MA & Jamieson PD (2008) Quantifying the effect of uncertainty in soil moisture characteristics on plant growth, Field Crops Research 106:138-147
Evans N, Baierla A, Fitt BDL, Semenov MA, Gladders P & Hall B (2008) Range and severity of plant disease increased by global warming, J Royal Society Interface 5:525-531
Semenov MA (2008) Ability of a stochastic weather generator to reproduce extreme weather events, Clim Research 35:203-212
Jamieson PD, Brooking IR, Semenov MA, McMaster GS, White JW, & Porter JR (2007) Reconciliation of alternative models of phenological development in winter wheat, Field Crops Research 103: 36-41
Semenov MA (2007) Development of high resolution UKCIP02-based climate change scenarios in the UK, Agric. Forest Meteorology, 144: 127-138
Semenov MA Jamieson PD & Martre P (2007) Deconvoluting nitrogen use efficiency in wheat: a simulation study, Eur J Agronomy, 26 (3), 283-294
Willis JC, Bohan DA, Choi YH, Conrad KF & Semenov MA (2006) The effect of climate change on the dynamics abundance and geographical range of a pest slug, Deroceras reticulatum, in the UK. Global Change Biology 12(9):1643-1657
Martre P, Jamieson PD, Semenov MA, Zyskowski RF & Triboi E (2006) Modelling protein content and composition in relation to crop nitrogen dynamics for wheat Eur J Agronomy 25:138-154
Choi YH, D A Bohan DA, Potting RPJ, Semenov MA, & Glen DM (2006) Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics. Ecological Modelling, 190:336-350
Lawless C & Semenov MA (2005) Assessing lead-time for predicting wheat growth using a crop simulation model. Agric Forest Meteorology, 135:302-313
Porter JR & Semenov MA (2005) Crop responses to climatic variability. Phil.Trans. Royal Society. B, 360 (1463), 2021-35(pdf)
Lawless C, Semenov MA & Jamieson PD (2005) A wheat canopy model linking leaf area and phenology Eur. J. Agronomy, 22:19-32
Semenov MA & Terkel DA (2003) Analysis of convergence of an evolutionary algorithm with self-adaptation using a stochastic Lyapunov function. Evol Computation 11(4):363-379
Ewert et al (2002). Effects of elevated CO2 and drought on wheat: testing crop simulation models for different experimental and climatic conditions. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 93: 249-266
Brooks RJ, Semenov MA & Jamieson PD (2001) Simplifying Sirius: sensitivity analysis and development of a meta-model for yield prediction Eur J Agronomy 14:43-60
Jamieson PD, Berntsen J, Ewert F, Kimball BA, Olesen JE, Pinter PJ, Porter, JR & Semenov MA (2000) Modelling CO2 effects on wheat with varying nitrogen supplies. Agric Ecosystems and Environment, 82:27-37
Jamieson PD & Semenov MA (2000) Modelling nitrogen uptake and redistribution in wheat. Field Crops Research, 68:21-29
Porter JR & Semenov MA (1999) Climate variability and crop yields in Europe. Nature, 400,6746:724
Semenov MA & Brooks RJ (1999) Spatial interpolation of the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator in Great Britain. Climate Research 11:137-148 (pdf)
Semenov MA, Brooks RJ, Barrow EM & Richardson CW (1998) Comparison of the WGEN and LARS-WG stochastic weather generators in diverse climates. Clim Research 10:95-107 (pdf)
Jamieson PD, Semenov MA, Brooking IR & Francis GS (1998) Sirius: a mechanistic model of wheat response to environmental variation. Eur J Agronomy, 8:161-179
Semenov MA & Barrow EM (1997) Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios Clim Change, 35:397-414
Semenov MA, Wolf J, Evans LG, Eckersten H & Iglesias A (1996) Comparison of wheat simulation models under climate change. II. Application of climate change scenarios. Clim Research, 7:271-281
Wolf J, Evans LG, Semenov MA, Eckersten H & Iglesias A (1996) Comparison of wheat simulation models under climate change. I. Model calibration and sensitivity analyses. Clim Research, 7:253-270
Semenov MA & Porter JR ( 1995) Climatic variability and the modelling of crop yields. J Agric Forest Meteor, 73:265-283
Racsko P, Szeidl L & Semenov MA (1991) A serial approach to local stochastic weather models. Ecol Modelling, 57:27-41